Tajikistan to host summits of regional powers to discuss Afghanistan
- 2 high-level meetings of regional and world powers will discuss issues of recognition, bilateral relations, cooperation with Taliban-led Afghanistan
Dushanbe, SEPT 13: Tajikistan capital Dushanbe will host two important summit
meetings of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective
Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) on Thursday to discuss issues related to
Afghanistan.
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
India, and Pakistan along with Afghanistan, which has observer status at the
SCO will attend the Dushanbe meeting. This will be the first major meeting of
regional countries since the Taliban announced their interim government in
Kabul on Sept. 7.
Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon will host the CSTO
session, scheduled to be attended by presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Belarus, Russia, and the Armenian prime minister.
The grouping which includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
and Tajikistan (who are also SCO members) along with Armenia, Belarus (SCO
observer states) was founded in 1992.
Following the Aug. 23 virtual meeting, CSTO Secretary
General Stanislav Zas said that the leaders had agreed to join efforts with the
SCO member countries and other international organizations on the Afghan issue.
Russia is keen to reclaim and assert its role as the
protective power for the Central Asian states to keep them under its wings
promising to upgrade its weapon system.
According to CSTO’s Deputy Secretary-General Valery Semerikov,
the leaders will approve a plan to equip the Collective Rapid Reaction Force
(CRRF) with modern weapons and equipment. Set up in 2009, the CRRF is a joint
task force comprising independent military units from the CSTO, with the
purpose to counter limited military aggression against member states, to fight
against terrorism and drug trafficking.
This decision comes amid apprehensions about future
developments in Afghanistan and their possible negative consequences on the
situation in Central Asia, says Semerikov. He also added that there were also
“growing threats to Russia’s strategic defense assets in the Central Asian
states”.
The Taliban’s taking of power in Afghanistan has opened many
opportunities for Russia and China to expand their influence in South and
Central Asia.
Given stability assurances that are being sought by Russia, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan and the prevention of extremist groups crossing over from Afghanistan, there are chances that these countries will try to convince Tajikistan not to support the ethnic Tajik community and their leaders militarily to allow them to continue resistance against the new setup in Kabul.
Hence Moscow may not encourage
the CSTO to extend support for “tacit military cooperation with the Northern
Alliance, as was the case with the Panjshir leader Ahmad Shah Massoud” during
1996-2001, says Russian defense expert Shamil Gareev.
Russia is keen that Central Asian
partners do not get distracted or wavered by US requests to allow its military
presence to conduct operations in Afghanistan. In August, Russian forces
conducted bilateral military exercises with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
These were followed up by the
Frontiers-2021 -- joint exercises of the CSTO Collective Rapid Deployment Force
(CRDF) held in Kyrgyzstan from Sept. 5-9. The maneuvers were also participated
by servicemen from Kazakhstan and Russia.
Moreover, special forces units of
the Kyrgyz Interior Ministry also took part in the exercises, which involved
maneuvers by Sukhoi-25 attack aircraft, Mig-8 helicopters, and Orlan-10 drone
planes.
The ZU-23-2 air-defense unit of
the Kyrgyz army also took part in the exercises. The BM-21 Grad Multiple Rocket
Launcher System was also tested in addition to Orlan-10 drone planes and
“Arrow-2M” shoulder fired missiles. The Su-30 SM planes of Kazakhstan
coordinated ground and air combat operations.
It is expected that the two
high-level significant meetings of regional and two world powers in Dushanbe
will come up with a clear understanding of dealing with Afghanistan and the
ways to proceed with issues of recognition, bilateral relations, and
multilateral cooperation with the Taliban in the coming months.
By Zaki Shaikh
The writer is a UK-based analyst and has worked with universities in three Central Asian countries.
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