Shakeel Ahmad Ramay
Afghanistan is in the need of
help. It needs help to overcome the shadows of the 40-year long war and civil
conflicts. The war and civil conflicts have shaken the social and economic
fabric of the country. Economic opportunities are rare and social disturbance is
widely spread in the country.
During the last 40 years, only
the brief period of Taliban rule was considered stable and peaceful. It ended
with the start of the war on terror after the 9/11 incident. Taliban government
was overthrown by the US-led forces and a new era of violence started. The US
army entered Afghanistan with carpet bombing and the country had to bear the
worst impacts of ruthless war on terror. It has engulfed hundreds of thousands
of lives. After 20 years of war and continuous claims of victory, the US and
its allied forces have left Afghanistan. Now again Taliban has taken over the
country and they have promised to bring back stability and peace.
However, the ground realities are
scary. The continuous war and civil conflicts have introduced multifaceted
problems including less economic development and more uncertainty. Poverty
incidence rate is extremely high. According to the Afghan government statistics,
the multidimensional poverty index for Afghanistan is 51.7 percent. There is no
job security. The government indicates that 81 percent jobs are insecure. Skill
levels are not refined to suit the needs of markets. It results in a higher
unemployment rate, which is 11.7 percent. Food insecurity is prevalent and
according to WFP 2019, 12.5 million people are severely in food insecurity.
Access to affordable and reliable
energy is another area of concern. These factors negatively impacted the human
development index of the country and Afghanistan falls at the bottom on human
development index (170). Although every segment of society is bearing the brunt
of weak economic growth, youth is the most affected segment. The young
generation is struggling to cope with the situation. They are struggling to get
quality education and livelihood opportunities.
The weak business environment
further complicates the situation. Afghanistan has been ranked at 173rd place
on ease of doing business. The ranking of individual indicators also presents a
dismal picture. The worst performing indicators are dealing with construction
permits (183), registering property (186), getting electricity (173) paying
taxes (178), and trading across border (177).
Many international organizations
and countries like World Bank, EU, DFID, USAID, IDRC, GIZ, European countries,
Saudi Arabia, etc. were trying to help Afghanistan. The world also established
forums like the Ministerial Conference on Afghanistan, Heart of Asia Forum,
tri-lateral forum. Unfortunately, these initiatives could not deliver the
promise of a stable and prosperous Afghanistan.
The major reasons for the failure
were political interference, self-centric games, conditionalities ranging from
social to political spheres and little or no understanding of Afghanistan.
In this context, China and
Pakistan can join hands to present alternative and practical options and
solutions for Afghanistan. There are certain merits that make the duo a perfect
combination to assist Afghanistan to realize the dream of peace and
development. First, it is well-established fact that China does not come with
political strings or teaching material of democracy, etc.
China keeps business simple and
runs it on the economic rationales. Second, Pakistan has a deep understanding
of Afghanistan. Pakistan also has all the experience of dealing with Taliban
and Afghanistan. Thus, the combination of the two countries would be an
excellent initiative. On top of everything, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are the best available options for
assisting Afghanistan.
The good thing is that
Afghanistan, irrespective of who is in power, has keen interest to join CPEC.
Taliban also said it welcomed the investment. However, to make it a success
Pakistan and China will have to work more closely with the future Afghan
government.
They should develop a concrete
plan for the extension of CPEC by working together with the Afghan government
and other stakeholders. It is suggested that the expansion plan of CPEC should
focus on three areas: 1) improvement of business environment, 2) infrastructure
construction and 3) human capital.
There should be specialized
programs that can provide urgent relief to people. For example, presently
Afghanistan is looking for opportunities that can help create infrastructure
and livelihood opportunities. Afghanistan is in dire need of jobs, as many
young people are looking for work. Thus, Pakistan and China should devise some
infrastructure programs for the reconstruction of the war-torn country.
Skill development would be
another area, which must be prioritized in CPEC expansion plan. Owning to
continuous war and conflicts, Afghanistan could not invest in vocational
training for its people, which is a major reason for job insecurity in the
country. Pakistan can perform the job easily, as there will be no language
barrier because Pashto is one of the major languages of Pakistan.
On top of that, millions of
Afghan people have been trained and educated in Pakistan. They spent decades in
Pakistan. So, it would be easy for Pakistan to impart training and skills. For
that purpose, Pakistan and China can also launch joint skill development. The
implementation of programs can be started from refugees’ camps in Pakistan.
Second, China can also launch a
special corridor with the name of “Corridor of Peace and Prosperity” (CPP)
under the Belt and Road Initiative. The goal of the CPP should be to promote
peace through development. The concept of peace through development is also
very close to the Chinese philosophy of international relations and shared
prosperity.
A new corridor would be a win-win
proposition. China will be able to pilot the concept of shared prosperity and
Afghanistan will be able to create momentum in the national economy.
The main objective of the
corridor should be to turn Afghanistan into a transit trade hub. For that
purpose, China will have reasons to invest in transport, communication
infrastructure, and improving local business environment.
However, China will have to keep
in mind that Afghanistan does not have financial resources yet. Thus,
Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) would be a best-suited model for Afghanistan’s
reconstruction.
The CPP corridor can be linked to
other initiatives like China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor. Special
initiatives can also be designed under the umbrella of Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO), which can bring additional financial resources. China can
also help mobilize resources from Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
to meet the urgent needs of Afghanistan.
Besides, other countries can also
join the CPP. Iran can extend Khaf-Herat railway and join the CPP. Middle
Corridor of Turkey can also look for avenues of cooperation.
Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul railway line can also be extended to Afghanistan and
create linkages with CPP.
Through these long-term
development aids and investments, the world can help Afghanistan sustain peace
and stand on its own feet. A peaceful Afghanistan with a stable business
environment and human resources will be beneficial for everyone. Peaceful
Afghanistan will help connect Central Asia with South Asia. It will open new
windows of opportunities.
It is acknowledged that South
Asia is energy hungry while Central Asia is rich in energy. Central Asia is
looking for opportunities to create linkages with South Asian countries for
export of energy. South Asia is also extremely interested in enhancing trade
and economic linkages with Central Asia. South Asia looks Central Asia as a
potential market.
The only bottleneck at that point
of time is unstable Afghanistan and weak infrastructure of connectivity. By
investing in infrastructure and rebuilding peace, this bottleneck can be
removed, and a new era of regional cooperation will open.
In conclusion, a peaceful
Afghanistan will also provide support for the other regional and global
initiatives like CPEC, BRI, etc. China will benefit from a peaceful and stable
Afghanistan, as Taliban has already assured the Chinese government that Taliban
will ensure the safety of Chinese personals, who work in Afghanistan. Moreover,
Taliban also assured that no terrorist group will be allowed to operate from
the soil of Afghanistan.
The author is a political economist from Pakistan.
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