South China Sea Dispute: Beyond Paradigms

 

South China Sea Dispute: Beyond Paradigms

Introduction:

The South China Sea has become one of the most complex and dangerous conflict zones of contemporary times. An altercation started as a territorial dispute over rocks and reefs has grown into a clash overfishes, trade and natural resources. The South China Sea is basically a valuable body of water, comprised of many islands. However, the ownership of these islands is disputed. 

Many states including China, Vietnam, Brunei, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are a contestant of their proprietorship. However, the largest claimant is China with its infamous 9 dash lines. 

In addition to regional states, many international players have also shown immense interest because of their immense wealth, waterway and natural resources. Amongst them are the United States, Japan and India.

Geography:

The South China Sea is basically an extended arm of the Western Pacific Ocean that is bordered by the South Asian mainland. This is an extensive water mass with a total area of 3,700,000 km2, ranging from Singapore to the Strait of the Philippines.[1] This makes it the largest body of water after 5 oceans.  

States and territories bounding the sea include China, Macao, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. 

Major rivers that flow into it embody the Pearl, Min, Jiulong, Red, Mekong, Rajang, Pahang, and Pasig Rivers. Besides water, it contains more than 200 islands and reefs, mostly in the Spratly islands.[2]

Importance:

Any territory’s value is defined primarily by two factors i.e. Natural Resources and Strategic location. The South China Sea is abundant in both. 

It occupies an untapped reservoir of oil that makes up to 150 Billion Barrels and gas cenotes of 900 Trillion cubic feet.[3] The value of these resources is spiraled further as they are located near energy-hungry states with growing economies.

Another factor that adds to its importance is fishing. The South China Sea is one of the best breeding grounds for fishes because of its high plankton formation [1]. This makes it one of the highly concentrated fishing beds. 

Not only does it satisfy the dietary requirements of the neighboring, high seafood consuming nations but also generates tremendous economic and employment activities.

Last but not least is its centrally located position. South China Sea’s strategic position makes it one of the busiest waterways in the world. It connects Eastern and South East Asia with the rest of Eurasia and Africa. Thus enabling it to conduct trade worth trillions of dollars annually.

States Included:

As mentioned earlier, there’re many states involved both directly and indirectly. Some of the regional states involved forthwith are as follows:

•           Vietnam:

            Vietnam's claim to the South China Sea is historical in nature. It asserts that many of these islands have been used by Vietnamese fishermen for centuries. Moreover, many of these islands were annexed to Vietnam during the French colonial period.[2] Vietnam also filed a claim in the UN along with Malaysia in 2009.

•           Malaysia:

            Malaysia’s claims are based on Continental Shelf Principle. According to which the Exclusive Economic Zones are extended by several nautical miles with reference to the continental shelf i.e. submerged part of land underwater. Furthermore, it claims that the Spratly islands were annexed by Malaysia after 1945. Therefore, they belong to Malaysia.

•           Brunei:

            Its claims lay a rectangle that ranges up to the edges of Spratly islands. It also has indulged in a dispute with Vietnam due to overlapping borders.

•           Philippines:

            It also claims that most of the islands belong to them both historically and legally. Its claim, however, clashes with all the ones mentioned above.

•           China:

            The main elephant in the room is China. It lay its claims on the basis of a document drafted in the 1930s called the 9-dash lines. It was drafted by the then Republic of China to establish its frontiers on the basis of historic evidence.

Although the regime changed and the communists took over but the 9 dash line remained the same. This is also popularly known as the cow’s tongue and claims almost 90% of the total South China Sea to the People’s Republic of China.

There are also states that are not directly involved in the region but are indirectly associated in one way or another to preserve and protect their national security or economic interests. Some of them are discussed briefly:

•           India:

            India has two folded interests in the region i.e. Economic and Strategic. Economically, its trade relies on the Strait of Malacca through which it is connected with the Indo Pacific Ocean. While strategically, it wants to curtail China’s growing influence as both of them share bitter rivalries dating back to the 1950s.

•           Japan:

            Japan has a high reliance on the South China Sea as its economy is highly dependent on the sea routes passing through it. Moreover, 70% of its energy imports are from the Middle East which ultimately passes through the South China Sea. Furthermore, it also wants to curtail China’s influence as both of them share territorial disputes, particularly on the status of Taiwan.  

•           United States:

            The U.S. has significantly increased its presence in the region since 2010. Although some of its economic interests lay there its chief objective is strategic in nature. As China is an emerging global power, therefore, U.S. wants to curb its growth and maintain a World Order. For this purpose, it regularly conducts Freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea by performing regular naval exercises.

Current Status at International Level:

As mentioned earlier, the South China Sea has evolved into a very tense conflict zone; home to a lot of intense activity by regional and global powers. 

However, because the two giants in the room are US and China, therefore, the situation mostly revolves around actions by the two. The United States has started to exert maximum efforts to curtail the ever-increasing influence of China.

For this purpose, it has initiated bilateral security agreements with various regional states including Malaysia, South Korea and Indonesia. Moreover, to curb China economically, it has signed a TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) which allows the other contestant countries to trade freely with the US, instead of China.

Moreover, the US continuously conducts the Freedom of navigation exercises operated by US Marines.[1] For this purpose, the US has turned the South China Sea into a heavily militarized zone by deploying Aircraft carriers and warships. 

So far the big stick policy of the United States hasn’t triggered any severe conflict but the increasing tensions in the region can escalate the situation at any time.[2]

In response to US assertive measures, China has also taken a number of steps. For instance, in response to TPP, China has introduced a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which offers a better incentive to the signatories of TPP. 

Moreover, to assert its influence, China has established 2 new administrative districts in the Islands of Paracel and Spratly. Furthermore, it has developed a large scale Blue water navy and fisherman boats that are claimed to have guerilla warfare capabilities. 

Usually, navies of both powers are seen eyeball to eyeball. Lastly, to decrease its dependence on the South China Sea; China has initiated a Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) program. 

That will provide an adequate substitute to the waterways, ranging from Beijing to Rotterdam, passing through 120 countries. Thus providing a substitute to the Strait of Malacca and South China Sea’s waterways.

Future:

There are three possible future solutions to the ongoing conflict. The most expected of which is that China might be able to assert its growing influence on other contestants and legitimize its claims. 

Secondly, there might be an international arbitration and all the players might reach a mutually agreed division of boundaries. Lastly, and the most feared includes a military conflict, that should be avoided at all cost.

Muhammad Sadiq Farooq. 

Undergrad student of history at QAU, Islamabad.

He can be reached at Email: isadiqfarooqkhattak@gmail.com

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